A strategic win for Iran is simple:

  • its system of government has to survive this onslaught
  • it has to show it’s not paralyzed and can hit back
  • its nuclear programme may be slowned down, but may not be doomed forever
  • tension between the US and its allies has to increase, for example by showing US and Israeli policy hurts the global economy and makes the world more volatile, more unsafe

So far…

Iran’s system of government has survived, even after a spectacular decapitation. This makes the cowardly and impatient drive of the west to export democracy by bombing little school girls look ridiculous and criminal once again.

Iran has indeed been able to strike back after being bombed by the world’s most modern air force. The damage Iran has inflicted is in my opinion marginal and does not change the battlefield in Iran’s favor, but Iran doesn’t have to crush Israel and America to score a strategic victory.

With the global economy taking a hit tensions between western countries WILL rise. Also US allies in the middle east are already growing very uneasy.

What Israel and the US may indeed accomplish is eventual severe damage to the Iranian army, Iranian navy and Iranian infrastructure. But without a pro-Israel, pro-American government firmly in the saddle in Teheran that will be a rather hollow accomplishment paid in tax dollars, loss of prestige, loss of trust, and likely more blood of Iranian school kids.