• The Russians are making more use of planes to bombard. We may see the Ukrainians take down more Russian planes which will be promoted as Ukrainian victories, but the Russians can afford to lose a few more planes
  • They will keep bombing with everything they got to soften up and demoralize the Ukrainian army prior to launching a renewed offensive. Maybe it will be better coordinated than the initial offensive
  • The Ukrainians are still receiving the shipments with ‘lethal aid’ from the west. Their army will eventually grow to number as many as 500,000 soldiers
  • Before the invasion started I said the Russians did not have enough troops ready to conquer Ukraine and this has not changed. I think we in the west do not know the Russians plans. When western commentators say that the attack has not gone according to the Russian plan how do they know? They don’t. It’s incomprehensible through our western eyes, but this clumsy operation we are witnessing may indeed be the Russian plan… Maybe it was their intent to occupy a part of Ukraine first and then launch massive bombardment. Western tacticians would bombard first and then send in troops. The Russians may have miscalculated, they may have been holding back at first to avoid killing Ukrainians or it was simply their plan. We are very quick to jump to conclusions and too eager to predict the outcome
  • Having said that here is my prediction anyway: this will drag on for a lot longer. The west is doing everything it can to fight this war to the last Ukrainian and the Russians cannot back down without at least some conditions that would allow them to declare victory. If they have to admit to a humiliating defeat Russia as a country could fall apart just like the Soviet-Union started crumbling after the Soviet war in Afghanistan