Here is what I wrote on the 7th of March, almost exactly a month ago:
‘Iran cannot defeat Israel and America. It doesn’t have to do that to score some win, but even a minor strategic victory requires being able to keep shooting missiles and keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. Relentless Israeli and American bombing plus lack of industrial capacity will prevent a decisive flow of missiles. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed most of the world reacts and pressure all parties involved mounts.
America and Israel cannot get regime change with a bombing campaign alone.
They may very well convince the Kurds to launch some sort of offensive, but they’re not going to waltz into Teheran.
So… some kind of ceasefire after hostilities peter out. Iran can claim victory because at least it didn’t get a puppet installed, and Israel and America can claim victory because Iran’s nuclear programme is halted and Iran’s industry and military infrastructure, plus navy, are as wrecked as air and naval power will allow.
It’s not a scenario that promises much dopamine, in fact it’s kind of a boring scenario.
And that’s that another aspect of this, online wars like this have become more like sports events with commentators and fans enthusiastically weighing in and defending their team. Regardless of how many innocent lives are lost and how many people are plunged into unspeakable grief.’
What went viral of course was Macgregor, Ritter, Sachs, etc saying Israel was not going to survive this, Tel Aviv would be flattened, the US economy would entirely collapse, Trump would end up impeached, jailed, the Republican party would be over, ‘it’s over’ does well as title for YouTube videos.
We live in an attention economy and every fart on the global stage is magnified to create an endless stream of hour long bombastic ‘analysis’ and ridiculous forecasting. And when it works out differently they go on with the next bombastic ‘it’s over for so and so’ claims and people watch and click. Tragic events turned into dopamine loops.
Since am boring to talk to with all my non-wishful thinking sobriety and don’t preach to any tribe for clicks I wondered what ChatGPT would tell me, here it is:
‘In the attention economy, accuracy loses to emotional intensity: voices like Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, and Jeffrey Sachs thrive not because they forecast well, but because extreme, catastrophic claims trigger faster engagement, reinforce audience identity, and face no real penalty when proven wrong; war becomes serialized content, where “it’s over” outperforms nuanced reality, turning real-world suffering into a dopamine-driven loop that rewards narrative escalation over strategic truth.’
The Confessor 