Here are five simple rules:

  1. Check your own bias

2. Stress-test assumptions

3. Never assume the enemy does nothing

4. Ignore applause incentives

5. Say “I don’t know” when necessary

Let’s see how ell the popular ‘bishops’ of the anti-Israel, anti US imperialism community do.

1. Check your own bias

>>>> we have seen Israel slaughter so many children, we have seen Trump, and the US in general, blunder into so many insane things, that yes, we want them to fail, to fail miserably, of course that seduces people into scanning for signs that dreadful things are about to happen to what many see as pure evil

Do Ritter, Hedges, Sachs, Mearsheimer and so many others in this camp do that? Hardly.

2. Stress-test assumptions

For example, if you say that Iran right now is simply holding back its best missiles for last, at least leave open the options that they were bluffing or that the damage by US and Israeli air strikes may actually have been substantial.

Or if you know that Israel tries to keep a tight lid on news of any damage suffered during war, then don’t immediately assume there is gigantic damage being hidden. Because like that you have a claim that can’t be falsified. Media reports no destruction to Israeli cities? Of course not, Israel makes sure you don’t get to see it!! It’s actually really not that hard to contact people inside Israel and they haven’t all gone through extensive media training to hide the damage from you.

3. Never assume the enemy does nothing

When listening to some of these YouTube fan favorite I sometimes laugh out loud, which rarely happens. Iran is all brilliant, every move is planned, they will make smart moves time and time again and the US and Israel are mysteriously…. entirely inept at even countering any of those moves. A little bizarre. Trump may have less factual knowledge about the world than most inquisitive teenagers, that doesn’t mean the entire US and Israeli armies consist of only bungling idiots.

4. Ignore applause incentives

These people are indeed obviously pushing a narrative that they know full well will get them attention, clicks and applause. They often can’t hide that they are really looking for a place to belong, a camp fire to gather around. Bringing news few want to hear has you stand almost alone very quickly.

5. Say ‘I don’t know when necessary’

This one is simple. They never say they don’t know. They always talk with utmost confidence and certainty, yet when you rewind four years of Youtube content their shocking claims ‘Ukraine will collapse in two weeks, it’s over’ or ‘Israel is dying by a thousand cuts’ haven’t materialized.