• Missiles failed to destroy anything vital to Iran’s enemies
  • Iran’s launching capabilities severely battered
  • Iranian navy hard hit
  • Government fights a two front war, one against a variety of internal dissent and one against the US and Israel
  • Missiles have created some chaos, but no permanent damage
  • Very doubtful Iran can seal off the Strait of Hormuz long term
  • Every extra day this crisis lasts more countries start pressing for a diplomatic solution
  • Although Spain has put up some resistance to US policies on Iran other major European countries will either stand by or give some support to the US 
  • A ground invasion would be disastrous and require a gigantic effort, but with enough bombing Iran may actually lose control of some of its territory
  • Without any chance at contesting US and Israeli air superiority and no chance to engage Israeli and American forces on the ground, the only area where they are vulnerable, Iran was essentially playing the role The missiles had value as a deterrent, but now that they have deployed we know they can’t win a war. They could only work if Iran had been able to keep up large daily barrages for weeks. Yes, Iranian missiles are relatively cheap and interceptors are much more expensive, but that only really start becoming a drag if Iran can keep launching. It looks like the combined power of the Israeli and American airforce has been able to cripple them
  • Loss of strategic depth. Hamas, the scrappiest fighting force of them all, has little offensive capabilities at present, though it’s quietly regrouping. Hezbollah is reeling from blows to its leadership and the loss of Assad’s Syria, its direct link to Iran. The Houthis, though willing, cannot do much, the same for Shiite militia in Iraq
  • Israel will almost certainly manage to keep some sort of buffer zone in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon and will gobble up more Palestinian land in the West Bank and some European politicians may complain, but nothing will be done to stop Israel
  • Iran will be lucky to keep its system of government. If the current elite stays in the saddle there will be a draconian crackdown on anyone who showed signs of disloyalty during the war
  • If Trump’s statements of unconditional surrender are to be taken seriously and knowing how determined Netanyahu is the maximum will be done to undermine Iran’s territorial integrity, soon Israel and America may proclaim some Iranian shadow government of their own choosing, even if they can’t directly install it in Teheran