People commenting how the assassination of Iran’s leader by Israel and the US will trigger World War 3 can relax.

  • Iran’s governing system is prepared to replace an 86 year old leader
  • Iran can shoot some missiles, but not very effectively. Iranian missiles cannot knock out Israel or the US army in the region. 
  • You can expect some terrorist attacks in Europe and the US in retaliation, maybe not immediately, but eventually
  • Iran can temporarily increase the oil price and slow down the global economy by making traffic through the strait of Hormuz more expensive and riskier. It cannot permanently seal off the Strait. It can make insurance agencies balk at having customers pass through the area. If Iran decides to very aggressively seal off the Strait it will attract more force against it
  • Iran’s proxies are not powerful and don’t coordinate and can all expect to be bombed and decapitated just like Iran if they do step into this fight a little too loudly and overtly
  • Russia will not go to war over Iran, nor will China. Russia clearly doesn’t approve of what the west is doing to Iran, but it won’t risk getting openly involved
  • The worst risk is that Iran can be plunged into chaos, with protests, possibly one or more provinces breaking away and the government cracking down. This is what Netanyahu would love to see happening. Its Israel that stands to benefit the most from this illegal war on Iran. To keep Israelis happy enemies need to be eliminated left and right, incessantly. The world and the US gain nothing from destabilizing Iran and none of these recent events make it certain that Iran is going to get some wonderful western style liberal democracy now.
  • Anyway, this doesn’t spark World War 3.
  • And no, Nostradamus did not predict this.