Deep analysis of Iran’s counterstrike on Israel

1. Israel shown as vulnerable

With a combo of missiles and drones Iran managed to hit targets inside Israel, IDF HQ, air bases, also some civilian buildings, cars. Saturation meant that Israel, assisted by US defenses, couldn’t take out every threat. Iran most likely targeted only military targets, but it’s possible debris from missiles shot down hit residential areas. It’s not impossible Iran wanted to show it can hit Tel Aviv. Though the damage is in every respect minimal, almost symbolic, the impact on Israeli society is huge.

2. Lebensraum fanatics versus liberals full of despair and disenchantment in Israel. Israeli population further divided, splitting off into branches, none of them good. Some going full retard on nationalism and limitless, aggressive, sadistic dominance, some losing heart, losing will, losing sense of what all this means. A third, mixed, silent, almost invisible segment is hiding in shame and worry, too scared to take an open stance, trying to get by in the madness while refusing to get involved.

The settlers, the orthodox and radicals are spiralling further down into fanatical will to kill, destroy, annex, humiliate, inflict pain.

Liberal circles in Israel don’t see a way out of this any more.

3. Israel’s social contract is broken

Israel promises safety above all and prosperity to its citizens, if they are willing to endure a permanent siege mentality. Strikes like these where the death toll is almost negligible compared to what Israel has done to others do have huge psychological impact. The Israeli population has a very different attitude to suffering of its own side. While empathizing with the suffering of its enemies is seen as treason and outright anti-semitism by Israel and its supporters, casualties inside Israel, no matter how small in number, are felt as huge catastrophes and outrageous. Even a few deaths signal to Israelis that Israel’s promise of safety is fake. Of course, they’re not going to ever think that its own actions are making Israel unsafe.

4. Many Israeli citizens don’t see a clear end game

Israel decapitates its enemies, creates mountains of victims, mostly of unarmed human beings, bombs country after country, has unleashed an almost impossibly intense fury against millions of people, and yet, the feeling of being besieged only intensifies.

Before October 7th Israelis wallowed in the self-pity of ‘the world doesn’t understand us’, but this has morphed into whining about ‘the world wants us gone’. There is no self-reflection. They think they are being hated for being born, they can never accept that their insanely brutal acts are driving this hatred. They also think that other actors in this world use violence to secure goals and they think Israeli brutality is being unfairly scrutinized.

They fail to see that people are reacting much more strongly, because they see their own governments openly in bed with Israeli evil. Western citizens don’t feel such a direct link between atrocities and their own governments elsewhere in the world. People are also reacting much more strongly because only Israel is at all times shielded by the media. This daily orchestrated hypocrisy in the public domain, in officialdom, is triggering people immensely. And yes, murdering children and telling people to clap for Israel is a hard sell.

5. Israel doesn’t have the capacity to prosper while maintaining its apocalyptic ethnostate siege mentality.

With its addiction to dominance and tactical military triumphs it further isolates itself. At the moment Europe and the US are still very much benefitting from ties to Israel. The military industry rakes in huge profits, academia is dominated by Israel, western politicians, intellectuals, media employees and business people are still building whole careers on always treating Israel favorably. Yet there are cracks in this. Yes, Israel has taken European and American elites hostile and yes, those American and European elites still feed on Israel, but for some Israeli atrocities have gone too far and there will be a quiet shift away from Israel in some countries.

Taking out missiles and drones is not cheap. The cost of defending against even one morning of Iranian missiles coming in is huge. This is hanging over Israel as a sword of Damocles. Yes, we can minimize the impact of such an attack. But if this becomes a regular thing, we won’t be able to do so anymore.

Israel’s tourism sector has been hit hard, there is an ongoing brain drain among those Israeli not fanatically invested in the Israeli project, mobilization is demoralizing people and hurting Israel’s economy, war weariness is creeping in, existential despair, there is some risk of an Israeli civil war erupting at some point, some citizens are aware that Netanyahu is making his leadership indispensable by continually keeping the flames of conflict going.

6. Frustration with US and other allies

This is key in understanding Israel: no matter what allies do for Israel: it is NEVER enough.

You can be sure that Israeli elites feel deep contempt and resentment towards the US for not bombing Iran back to the stone age right now. Why? Because Israelis feel super important, they feel like they are and should be top of the food chain, and when allies don’t reflect this, when they offer help, but sort of hesitatingly and only incrementally, frustration and anger grow.

Israelis may feel some gratitude towards allies, but mostly it’s a mix of resentment and puzzlement: why aren’t they swinging in to permanently rid us of all our enemies with one fell sweep?

Conclusion:

While the damage of Iran’s attack is minimal, the impact on Israel’s fragile identity and shaky social contract is huge. It’s underming Israel long term in a significant way. We are seeing a death by a thousands cuts. Israel has not shown any sign that it has any way out of this cycle:

kill – some relief from having killed – new threat, repercussions, political costs internationally – kill – some relief – more problems – kill

Endlessly.

Israel cannot kill its way out of its predicament, because at the root of all its problems is its savage oppression of the Palestinians, its permanent siege mentality, its strange blend of paranoia and superiority complex, its stubborn unwillingness to acknowledge the pain its causing, its broken record tactic of always asking for sympathy for its losses, while denying the suffering of its victims.

There’s no honest soul searching in Israel, there’s no more compass, there is no more coherent societal project, Israel cannot keep its promises to its own population, several segments are starting to want radically different things. The only thing that holds Israel together is this perpetual siege mentality. ‘We don’t like each other, but if we don’t stand together we will be overrun.’

To appear to be a cheerful Israeli you have to cut yourself off from reality at all times.

The siege is not just organized against perceived enemies, it’s also a mental siege where anything that disturbs the Israeli narrative is locked out.

Would you want to live like that?