A breakdown of how Israel blindly walked into the trap Hamas set for it.

• before October 7th Israel ran war games in which all its enemies attacked it all at once, in no way was it prepared for a local ground attack by Hamas. Its personnel is not trained for urban warfare. Most IDF soldiers are not particularly motivated and receive inadequate training. They are conscripts, not professionals, and for years have been used more as a police force to harass Palestinian kids. The IDF was defeated in Lebanon in 2006 for example.

• Israeli military leadership systematically underestimated Hamas and saw them as incapable of anything else than sending over crappy rockets. The dehumanization of Palestinians also meant that their fighting capabilities were mocked

• It was the goal of Hamas to draw the Israeli army into Gaza. There the Israeli army is vulnerable and Hamas can kill IDF soldiers, something it normally can never accomplish if the IDF stays in Israel

• Israel was deeply humilated by the tactical success of Hamas on October 7th. How deep this humilation runs is hard to fathom for non-Israelis. Israel feels vastly superior and then a small band of guerrillas can play smash with its defenses. They were caught with their pants down. The budgets of the IDF and Hamas don’t compare. It’s mortifying for the IDF that Hamas was able to do any damage at all

• Israel had no plan for the Gaza invasion and acted out of rage, revenge lust, shame. It needed to save face. This is a mindset that inevitably leads to mistakes

• by invading Israel did exactly what its enemy wanted, which is never a good idea

• By destroying everything above ground the IDF created the ideal battlefield for Hamas. It’s the same mistake the Germans made in Stalingrad. The jungle of ruins, smashed concrete, twisted steel and chaos above ground nullifies the technological advantages that the better equipped Israeli army has. By destroying everything you also create a whole new layout, so you are now blind, you’ve given Hamas the perfect staging areas for attacks and for sniper nests

• by publicly stating again and again that the goal is to destroy Hamas, Israel has promised the public a goal it can never reach. Hamas wins if it’s not defeated. Israel only wins if Hamas is completely eradicated

• Israel cannot control any ground it gains, as soon as it leaves an area Hamas fighters emerge from under the ground and retake the area

• Hezbollah keeps the IDF busy up north so the IDF can never throw its full weight against Hamas • 20,000 American citizens are now actively serving in the IDF, but these people have jobs back in the states and can’t stay in Gaza forever, as time drags on the situation becomes more and more problematic for Israel

• because of Israel’s savage, but woefully ineffective offensive millions of people are looking into the matter and are discovering what Israel is doing to Palestinians in the West Bank and how it made life hard on Gazans. This would never have happened if Israel had reacted differently

• the west is no longer unified in its unconditional support for Israel, the cracks are beginning to show • Israel has become a less attractive place to left, a substantial number of people has left the country, if this trend continues Israel risks getting a more problematic Jewish citizens versus non-Jewish population ratio, which goes entirely counter to its raison d’etre

• as is typical for this kind of war the frustrated invader starts killing whatever it can kill: innocents. Hunting for an elusive fighting force that kills the invader by a million little cuts, is enraging and that rage is taken out on whomever happens to be around. The spirit of the My Lai massacre in Vietnam is what drives the IDF to become very trigger happy. This of course galvanizes international outrage, which then angers Israelis more. It’s a vicious circle that Israel will find very hard to break. Since Israel cannot break this offensive off without looking like the loser, it’s no longer in control of its own destiny. Either outside pressures stops it or Israel just keeps killing more and more citizens. To expect Hamas to surrender is ridiculous, since this is the best chance they ever got to get Israel to implode. Handed to them on a silver plate by Israel’s pig-headed decisions.