Markus, born and raised in Austra, is in Haifa right now. He combines about four jobs to scrape together a somewhat decent income. Teaching people like me German is one of them. Am sort of a copy of him, very similar background. The biggest difference is that I have a son and he doesn’t have children yet and isn’t married. That’s why he could pack his bags one day and move to Israel.

We talk about the situation there. He says Israel is a very diverse country.

He says that so far he’s only met Israelis who condemn the settlements in the West Bank. Some tell him that they are forced to serve in the military while Israelis who are exempt create a worse and worse security situation by creating more settlements. The ones who don’t need to do the fighting create situations where other have to go and catch Hamas bullets.

I ask what he thinks the 20 percent Arab Israelis think about the whole situation.

He says opinions among them vary.

They have a better living standard than the Palestinians outside of Israel’s borders. He says they probably have a better living standard than most Arabs anywhere else in the Middle East.

Some are proud of their Palestinian identity, but are fine living in Israel. Some have assimilated even more. Generally they seem ok with their situation.

He also mentiones that discussions about who did fucked up things in the past isn’t helpful right now. Those discussions don’t lead to solutions.

I tell him about an interview I saw with Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs.

He says the Palestinians and Israel will never be able to solve this. There will never be peace between them. The only solution is to have an international peace keeping force jump in and keep the two separate. Divide up the land into two states. He didn’t mention any details. I wonder if he would want all settlers to be evicted from their homes in the West Bank.

The idea of the international community finalizing a two state solution and sending a force to keep people from flying at each other’s throats appeals to Markus.

He says: ‘I think most Israelis would like that solution.’

I am a lot less optimistic there, because a solution like that means they do not get ALL of the land. Am sure the most radical segment of Israeli society would not accept an internationally dictated division of the land. It would also not be comfortable with a full-fledged independent Palestinian state, because that peace-keeping force would not stay forever of course. What if that independent Palestinian state becomes a lot more powerful in the mean time?

I think there are radicals on both sides that have a maximalist outcome in mind. They’ll never rest until their side has all of the land.

I think that’s the tragedy of many societies. The most radical, most vocal minorities have a disproportionate influence on the course of their society.

The same can be said about the events that led up to the American Civil War. I think the secession of 11 southern states back in 1860 and 1861 was driven by a very loud, very radical, very active and very influential minority.

Another problem when it comes to this type of solution is… Who is going to be willing to do it?

Europe has so many problems of its own and doesn’t care enough to send over a peace-keeping force. The US can’t solve any of its own issues and has a presidential race between two old guys almost nobody really loves. Plus, western leaders always treat Israel with kid gloves, so to dictate to Israel where its permanent border is going to be sounds like a naïve fantasy.

I agree though that it’s the only viable solution.

It’s not going to happen.

Unless internal divisions destroy Israel the Palestinians are going to be herded onto smaller and smaller slivers of land.

Their status will be similar to that of certain Native American tribes in the US.

Perhaps their best options is to preserve their culture, their identity, promote their cause.

If Palestine were a brand it’s one of the most succesful and hottest brands at the moment of writing.

The Palestinians can keep cultivating that.

They have much to be proud of and are admired by millions if not billions around the world. The lands they control could become places of modern day pilgrimage, almost like a rite of passage for college students all around the world. Even now it often surprises me how many people have visited the Palestinians in the west bank. This attraction to the Palestinian cause, which I also have, keeps the Palestinians very much alive as a people.

A continued armed struggle could in the long run help the Palestinians get something like an independent state, if Israel finally, finally takes it way too far with its violent responses and even western leaders can’t take it anymore. But it’s a gamble and the most militant faction of the Palestinans are making their people pay a frightful price for this dream of an independent Palestine or, much more elusive, a Reconquista of all of Israel. That of course doesn’t mean that they should just roll over and die when Israelis (often folk with two identity cards, meaning foreign settlers) want to encroach upon their lands and curtail their freedoms.

In the worst case the world is really going to stand aside and let the Israelis finish the ethnic cleansing operation they have started in Gaza. Hamas cannot be defeated and even it were eradicated a new armed movement would spring up immediately. The only assured success possible in Gaza for Israel is to kill everyone or drive everyone out.

We can dream of an international peace-keeping force jumping in, but let’s be realistic, it’s going to get a lot worse before it ever gets any better.

Looking back at history I wouldn’t be surprised if Israeli radicals would attack that peace-keeping force in order to eventually get more land. Maybe some radical Palestinian groups would so as well for the same reason. That could become very costly very fast to the countries sending that force.

In the end this is a shit storm and nobody watching it wants to catch any of it. Western leaders support Israel only to secure their own political careers. It’s astonishing how such a tiny country can have such a stranglehold on foreign politicians. A topic that deserves entire volumes of its own, such as The Israeli Lobby by by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt.

Moshe is a lot more optimistic. He thinks Hamas will be defeated. After that Gaza can be rebuild in cooperation with new Palestinian leaders commited to peace. In his opinion the Palestinians can eventually get an independent state if their leadership rejects any intention of fighting Israel. I can right this second find a few thousand people on X who would strongly condemn that idea. They say Israel is occupying Palestine and the Palestinians have every right to fight back any way they please and Israel can’t do anything about it.

Without a committed international peace keeping force and a brilliantly worked out two-state solution one side has to suffer a final, crushing defeat for this thing to come to some kind of conclusion.